Foreign investors sing more and do more!
On May 7th, S & P upgraded the long-term rating of Ningde era (300750) from BBB+ to AME, and its outlook changed from positive to stable. It is expected that the profit margin of EBITDA in Ningde era will further expand to 19% in 2024-2025.Tiger'sRichesRun.7% Mutual 19.8%. At the same time, according to yesterday's data, Ningde era has been continuously bought by northward funds for five consecutive trading days, with a cumulative net inflow of 2.392 billion yuan.
Today, according to global power battery statistics released by South Korean research institute SNE Research, Ningde Times continued to top the list of power battery installations in the world in the first quarter of this year. Its power battery is loaded with 60.1 GWh, an increase of 31.9% over the same period last year, with a market share of 37.9%, nearly 3 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Ningde era has been at the top of the list of power battery installations in the world for seven consecutive years.
So, can new energy vehicles usher in a wave of market?
The era of Ningde is very good.
Today, the era of Ningde is good again. S & P upgraded the rating of long-term issuers in the Ningde era from "BBB+" to "A -" on May 7th, looking forward to "stability". S & P believes that overseas expansion in the Ningde era should mitigate the impact of slowing domestic growth. Profit expansion will boost operating cash flow, coupled with strict controls on capital expenditure in the Ningde era, will help the company maintain a net cash position in 2024-2025. S & p expects Ningde's overseas sales to grow 34 per cent in 2024, while global sales will rise 19 per cent, 23 per cent, on the revenue side, and 8 per cent year-on-year for the whole year. In addition, benefiting from the decline in raw material prices in the next two years, the profit margin of EBITDA in Ningde era is expected to further expand to 19.7% and 19.8% in 2024-2025.
In early March, Morgan Stanley released a report that upgraded the Ningde era rating to "overweight" and set a target price of 210 yuan. In the report, Morgan Stanley analysts pointed out that Ningde era, as the world's leading battery manufacturer, has benefited from the rapid growth of the electric vehicle market and rising battery demand.
On April 15, Moody's upgraded the secured senior unsecured bonds issued by Ningde era and its wholly-owned subsidiary Contemporary Ruiding Development Limited to A3, and gave a stable outlook for the main body of Ningde era.
On April 16, Morgan Stanley analyst Jack Lu and others pointed out in a report that Ningde era battery profit margin exceeded expectations, benefiting from improved sales mix and cost control, and is expected to continue to boost earnings, raising the company's target price to 230 yuan. Jeffery analyst Johnson Wan slightly raised the target price of Ningde era to 245 yuan.
Foreign investment is not only bullish, but also bullish. According to yesterday's data, Ningde era has been continuously bought by northward funds for 5 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative net inflow of 2.392 billion yuan. South Korean research institute SNE Research released global power battery statistics, Ningde Times continued to rank first in the world in the first quarter of this year. Its power battery is loaded with 60.1 GWh, an increase of 31.9% over the same period last year, with a market share of 37.9%, nearly 3 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Ningde era has been at the top of the list of power battery installations in the world for seven consecutive years. BYD (002594) and LG New Energy ranked second and third in the first quarter, respectively.
Will there be a market for new energy vehicles?
From the capital point of view, Dianxin is still a heavy position of the fund industry. According to Guolian Securities data, in the first quarter of this year, the proportion of heavy positions in new industry funds was 8.83%, an increase of 0.07% over the previous quarter, and the proportion of overallocation in new industries in the first quarter was 2.56%, an increase of 0.25% over the previous quarter, close to the historical central level. According to the horizontal comparison of various industries, the proportion of fund positions in the new industry ranked fourth in the first quarter, followed by electronics, food and beverage, medicine and biology. The proportion of overmatch in the new electricity industry ranked fifth in the first quarter. They believe that the small increase in the proportion of public offering positions in the new industry in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter is mainly due to the strong alpha attributes of the leading enterprises in various sectors, and at this stage, the super proportion of the new industry is close to the historical central level, among which the positions held by lithium batteries and power operators have increased month-on-month; at the level of individual stocks, the outstanding performance of the Ningde era has been substantially increased.
From a fundamental point of view, there are still three positive factors in the new energy vehicle industry chain.Tiger'sRichesRun:
First, demand remains strong. A number of car companies have released April sales data during the May Day holiday, and many new energy car companies have handed in higher-than-expected transcripts. BYD sold more than 300000 vehicles in April, reaching 313200 vehicles, the second highest after December last year, up 49% from a year earlier. Changan New Energy and Geely New Energy both sold more than 50, 000 vehicles in April, 51700 and 51400 respectively, up 130% and 72% respectively.
Secondly, the policy is good for the interpretation of new energy vehicles. On April 26, the "detailed rules for the implementation of Automobile Trade-in subsidies" jointly issued by the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Finance and other seven departments were released to the public, defining the subsidy policy of automobile trade-in funds. The detailed rules clearly define the scope and standards of subsidies. The detailed rules stipulate that during the period from the date of publication to December 31, 2024, fuel passenger cars with emission standards of three or less in scrapped countries or new energy passenger vehicles registered before April 30, 2018, and individual consumers who buy new passenger cars that meet the energy-saving requirements, can enjoy an one-time quota subsidy of 7000 yuan or 10,000 yuan, depending on the type of newly purchased passenger car.
Finally, there is also news from the United States that it is good for the lithium battery industry chain. Recently, the US Treasury and the IRS released the final IRA bill, and the US Department of Energy gave the final explanation of the "concerned foreign defined entity" (FEOC). Among them, the redefinition of the materials used in graphite anode products will give it a buffer period of two years. Some analysts believe that, according to the above explanation, other battery materials such as electrolytes and adhesives also follow the new interpretation scope. In other words, the United States temporarily relaxed restrictions on the export of these Chinese products to the United States.
Data show that in 2023, China's total automobile output value reached a staggering 11 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 10% of the country's GDP, surpassing real estate for the first time. The total volume of automobile sales was 4.86 trillion, accounting for 10.3% of the total zero elimination, which has become the main driving force of consumption growth. From 2020 to 2024, the penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles has increased from 5% to 50%. But it is precisely this data that shows that the potential of permeability still exists and the space is still large. In addition, energy storage is also under development, which is also a great demand for batteries.
This article was first published on Weixin Official Accounts: Broker China. The content of the article belongs to the author's personal opinion and does not represent the position of Hexun.com. Investors should act accordingly and bear the risks themselves.