Zhitong Financial APP learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that since 2024, due to the strengthening of market expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, precious metals and industrial metals prices have risen, leading to the growth of corporate performance and the leading performance of the sector. Rising prices support copper-side profits, copper concentrate TC downward drag smelting enterprise performance; peak season tons of aluminum profits significantly improved; lead and zinc prices shock, the steady operation of enterprises; gold prices rise to promote performance; rare earth magnetic materials prices into the bottom range drag plate performance, waiting for reversal; antimony, molybdenum, tungsten rose significantly, focus on high elastic segmentation leader.
The text is as follows:
Copper: AIDC drives copper demand, and copper supply and demand are in tight balance. Generative AI bringsBox24casino100freespins2022The growth of computing power increases the demand for long-term copper from the supply side (data center) and the transmission side (5G base station). It is estimated that in 24-26 years, the copper consumption of global data centers + 5G base stations PCB+GB200 NVL72 will reach 89108t / 1.29 million tons in higher cases and 3950 / 630000 tons in lower cases. AI wave will bring long-term growth in copper consumption downstream. At the same time, the growth of global copper supply is limited, the supply disturbance of the head mining enterprises has intensified, and the supply and demand of copper has maintained a tight balance.
Related targets: Zijin Mining / Luoyang Molybdenum Industry / Tongling Nonferrous Mining / Western Mining / China Nonferrous Mining, etc.
Gold: gold stocks are expected to usher in the main rising market. The growth rate of self-produced gold cost of gold stocks slowed down in 2023. Based on the indicators such as the high deficit ratio in the United States, the increase in monetization rate, the risk stimulus of re-inflation, the increase in gold production cost and the continued gold purchase by the central bank, it is expected that gold prices in the long-term dimension will have upward momentum. In 2024, when the gold price rises and the cost control is relatively stable, the performance of gold stocks will be better, and the current market value of gold stocks does not reflect more gold price rising expectations, so there is more room for "make-up".
Related target: Shandong Gold / Zhongjin Gold / Yintai Gold / Chifeng Gold / Zijin Mining, etc.
Silver: photovoltaic + AI drives the demand for silver, the shortage of supply and demand for silver is intensified, and the repair conditions for the ratio of gold to silver are gradually satisfied. In terms of commodity attributes, the marginal recovery of the global economy, the high growth rate of photovoltaic installation and the development of AI jointly drive silver demand; at the same time, the growth of global mineral silver supply is limited, silver supply and demand is expected to maintain a shortage, and the fundamentals of supply and demand give strong support to silver prices. In terms of financial attributes, gold prices have risen sharply in the short term since March, silver inventories have been maintained and eliminated, silver COMEX futures and silver ETF positions have increased, and gold-silver ratio repair conditions have been gradually met. It is expected that the continued increase in market attention will further stimulate investment demand for silver and trigger a rapid rise in silver prices.
Related targets: Shengda Resources / Xingye Silver Tin / Yintai Gold / Gold, expensive Silver, etc.
Rare earths: the price of rare earths is expected to bottom out and rise, and the fundamentals of magnetic materials are also expected to improve.Box24casino100freespins2022The supply of rare earth raw ore in China has been controlled by state-owned assets and concentrated in the head, which is of far-reaching significance to control the global pricing power of rare earths. In May, northern rare earths, the leader of light rare earths, raised the listing price for the first time in half a year, boosting industry confidence. At the same time, spot prices in the industry bottomed out and rebounded, but remained at an all-time low in the past five years. On the demand side, with the continuation of prosperity in traditional areas such as new energy vehicles and air conditioners, "equipment renewal" and "trade-in" are expected to bring higher-than-expected demand increments, and middle and low-end demand picks up under economic recovery; on the supply side, the growth rate of domestic quotas slows, imported mines continue to weaken, and overseas supply disturbances continue, and we continue to be optimistic about the reversal of rare earth prices.
Related targets: resource side: northern rare earth / Chinese rare earth / Shenghe resources, etc.; magnetic materials: Jinli permanent magnet / Zhenghai magnetic materials, etc.
Antimony: antimony plate two-way improvement in supply and demand, pay attention to incremental and profit flexibility of the target. Short-term inventory remains low and continues to be eliminated; on the demand side, medium-and long-term photovoltaic demand contributes to sustained growth, and flame retardant demand is expected to level off for a long time; on the supply side, domestic mining accidents are incremental under policy restrictions, and overseas progress is not as expected. Antimony prices are expected to continue to rise.
Related target: Hunan Gold / Huayu Mining / Huaxi Nonferrous, etc.
Molybdenum: the medium-and long-term increment of molybdenum may not be as expected, and the pattern of supply and demand is expected to be improved. On the supply side, over the past 24 years, the operating rates of molybdenum concentrate / ferromolybdenum / molybdenum oxide are all at a historically high level, the supply increment space is relatively limited, and the inventory of the industrial chain has moved to the stage of passive de-mineralization; in addition, a large proportion of molybdenum is faced with the problem of grade decline as a copper associated mine, and the head mining enterprises have lowered their molybdenum production guidelines for 25 years, and there is still great uncertainty in the introduction of new mines, and molybdenum supply and demand is expected to remain tight. On the demand side, the growth rate of ferromolybdenum steel is high compared with the same period last year. With the continuation of energy and shipbuilding industry, downstream demand is improving, and molybdenum price center is expected to continue to rise.
Related target: gold and molybdenum shares.
Tungsten: tungsten ore supply and demand continues to improve, low inventory boosts prices. On the demand side, in traditional areas, it is expected to benefit from equipment upgrading and manufacturing recovery, photovoltaic and titanium alloy and other emerging areas to contribute new driving force for growth; on the supply side, the global tungsten resources can be harvested for only more than 40 years. China's quota is controlled by the state, the growth is slow, and inventory remains low, and the tungsten price center is expected to rise steadily.
Related targets: medium tungsten high-tech / Zhangyuan tungsten industry / Xiamen tungsten industry, etc.