Newsletter summary
May 21SlotextrajuicyThe price of Hebei vermicelli egg fell to 3Slotextrajuicy96 yuan per jin, egg consumption is boosted by rising vegetable prices in the south, but the Meiyu season is approaching and the market prevents egg prices from falling. The futures market recommends shorting every high and paying attention to stop losses. Apple futures shock, Shandong production areas ushered in a small peak season, prices fell slightly. The situation of fruit setting in the producing areas is different, Qingyang City, Gansu Province has performed well, the market in the sales area is stable, but apple sales are facing seasonal fruit competition.
Text of news flash
Dynamics of supply and demand in egg market and futures market
[the price of eggs fell] yesterday, the price of Hebei vermicelli eggs made a slight correction, ending.SlotextrajuicyThe previous continuous upward trend. According to market research, as of May 21, the average prices of pink eggs and red eggs were 3. 5% respectivelySlotextrajuicy.96 yuan / jin and 4.08 yuan / jin. The profit level is currently above the breeding cost line, indicating that laying hen farmers are making good profits.
While the supply side remains stable, the increase in consumer demand has contributed to the rise in egg prices. The inventory of producing areas and circulation channels is still not abundant, and the consumption of eggs is significantly released in the short term. Due to the rise in vegetable prices in the southern region, the substitution effectiveness of eggs has been enhanced, resulting in a significant increase in the volume of arrival in the southern region. Affected by this, traders are more willing to accept goods, inventory is not large, driving the continued increase in prices. The speed of market circulation is accelerating, and the atmosphere of rising egg prices is getting stronger and stronger. It should be noted that as prices rise, the pace of eliminating old chickens slows down, while the output of new laying hens speeds up, and the supply of eggs appears to be more adequate. However, with the advent of the rainy season, the hot and humid weather is disadvantageous to the storage of eggs, resulting in frequent quality problems, market shipping enthusiasm has increased, investors need to be aware of the possible rapid decline in egg prices.
In the futures market, the price of the contract in recent months may fall synchronously with the weakening of the spot price, and investors need to pay close attention to the decline of the spot price. For far-month contracts, the core logic is that low egg prices will lead to reduced capacity. At present, the rise in egg prices has made farmers begin to make a profit, and the pace of eliminating old chickens is expected to slow down, which is not conducive to the elimination of laying hen capacity, thus limiting the room for the rise of far-month contracts. The operational advice is to go short when the price is high and pay attention to setting stops to avoid losses.
Supply and demand Analysis and Futures trend of Apple Market
In the futures market, the price of Apple's main contract shows a trend of volatility and weakness. The closing price of the 10 contract was 7508 yuan / ton, down 53 points from the previous trading day, indicating a decrease in trading volume and an increase in position.
In Shandong, the best part of Apple's release came in mid-May, attracting more merchants, and overall sales were the same as those during the May Day holiday. The quality and price of apples sold by fruit growers have decreased, while the products out of stock are mainly middle and lower grade goods. In addition, the prices of preserved fruit and other sources have risen. According to the survey data, the supply of high-priced goods of 3.0 yuan / jin and above is relatively small, and the pressure is not great, but the inventory in the hands of fruit farmers still accounts for a large proportion, and it is expected that the pressure of leaving the warehouse is still on the high side. The average transaction price of apples in Qixia market was 4.05 yuan / jin, while the price in Yiyuan production area decreased, but the number of inquiry merchants increased.
In the western region, such as Luochuan, Shaanxi Province and other producing areas, fruit farmers' storage activities are coming to an end. Although there is still a surplus in inventory and a decline in prices, the enthusiasm of fruit farmers to get out of the warehouse is still high. The average transaction price of apples in Luochuan market is 4.35 yuan / jin. The price of paper film and film bag in Yuncheng, Shanxi tends to be stable and firm, and the activity of getting out of the warehouse is accelerated. In Gansu production areas, due to the relatively high price, prices remain stable, transaction activities are also accelerating; Qingyang production areas of the willingness to release the warehouse has been enhanced, high-quality supply is more sought-after, the speed of release is faster.
As of May 15, 2024, the cold storage capacity of apples in the country's main producing areas was 3.3225 million tons, down 426200 tons from last week, according to Mysteel. The activity of leaving the warehouse has accelerated. According to statistics, as of the same day, the current storage capacity of cold storage in the country is about 2.9817 million tons, and the de-inventory rate has reached 66.58%. In the current period (20240509-0514), the total output of cold storage is 383000 tons, showing a slight increase in the delivery speed of cold storage.
A recent survey found that high-quality apples are relatively scarce in the supply of cold storage in apple-producing areas, the prices of preserved apples and other apples have bottomed out, and some merchants have actively transported fruit farmers' products with high performance-to-price ratio, while the stocks of fruit farmers in some western producing areas have been basically emptied. After the May Day holiday, Apple's peak sales season is coming to an end, but the recent performance of the production area is better, and the market performance of the sales area is also normal. Although the quality of the apples in the producing areas is poor and the price is low, due to the high cost of finishing the finished products, the market price does not change much, and the price drop does not effectively affect the market in the sales area. The overall consumption in the sales area is stable but deviated, and the impact of the price of alternative fruits on apples is limited, but the sales of fruit categories are still faced with some difficulties. As for the apple in the new season, the fruit setting situation in some producing areas is poor, while that in other producing areas is better.
