The contraction of A-shares fell on May 21.PirateslotsThe Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.Pirateslots.42% was at 3157.97 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.71% at 9681.66 points, and the gem Index fell 0.77% at 1861.48 points. In terms of volume and energy, the market turnover was 801.96 billion yuan; on the market, the non-ferrous metals industry made a comprehensive pullback, gold stocks led the decline, and the coal plate rose slightly.
Dividend state-owned enterprise ETF (510720) rose 0.68 per cent against the market today. When the theme of the market is not clear, we can pay attention to the dividend state-owned enterprises for defense configuration. Take the dividend index of Shanghai's state-owned enterprises as an example, the secondary market has increased by 38.29% in the past three years (2021-5-20-2024-5-20), which is significantly better than the return level of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (- 28.64%) and Shanghai Composite Index (- 9.68%) in the same period.
Source: WIND
In recent years, the characteristics of relatively low volatility and low pullback of the dividend sector provide higher risk returns for investment. The reason is, on the one hand, after the industry or enterprise enters the stable growth stage, the growth rate slows down, and dividends relative to performance growth, which contributes more to the return; on the other hand, when the macroeconomic growth center begins to move down, the overall profit growth rate of the market tends to slow down and the market risk appetite moves down, and the value of assets with high dividends and high dividends is highlighted.
The target index of dividend state-owned enterprises ETF (510720) is the dividend index of Shanghai state-owned enterprises, which is weighted according to the average after-tax cash dividend rate to screen high dividends; industries focus on coal, banking, transportation and so on, highlighting the value of dividends. As of 2024-5-20, the average dividend yield of the Shanghai State-owned Enterprise dividend Index (000151.SH) in the past 12 months was 5.64%, which was higher than the dividend index (5.54%), the CSI dividend (5.07%), the dividend low wave 100 (5.13%), the dividend low wave (5.22%), the Shenzhen dividend (2.93%) and the broad base index such as Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (2.91%) and Shanghai Composite Index (2.62%).
On the whole, the scale and dividend willingness of central state-owned enterprises are higher, while "special valuation + market value management assessment" is expected to further improve the willingness of central state-owned enterprises to pay dividends. Interested partners can continue to pay attention to the dividend state-owned enterprise ETF (510720) and select the central state-owned enterprise with high dividend, and according to the fund contract, the fund manager can carry out monthly evaluation and income distribution, and can arrange the income distribution under the condition of fund dividend. Dividends can be paid up to 12 times a year.
Since mid-April, the aquaculture sector has rebounded sharply, with aquaculture ETF (159865) up more than 17%. This is mainly due to the fact that pig prices have stabilized at 15 yuan / KG in April / May under the background of the previous secondary fattening amount and the off-season of the year, strengthening the confidence of the market. Follow-up view of the current aquaculture sector valuation is still historically low, cycle reversal is expected, it is expected not to be afraid of secondary fattening disturbance, or there is still a low layout opportunity.
Source: wind
For now, the second fattening to the hurdle usually lasts 2-3 months. Secondary fattening will shift the market supply pressure backward in a short period of time, and the higher the proportion of secondary fattening in a single month, the greater the gap. At the same time, the greater the incremental impact on supply after three months.
In the current situation of secondary fattening, with the gradual transmission of sow production capacity to the supply side of live pigs and the marginal warming of consumption, the superimposed industrial bullish sentiment after May Day triggered a new round of secondary fattening. At present, the heat of secondary fattening is at a high level. However, with reference to the law of history, the annual Mid-Autumn Festival and New Year's Day Spring Festival are the top pig prices of the year. Considering the fattening cycle, the seasonal fattening / second fattening usually begins from the end of June to the middle of July and lasts until the end of November, so the heat of secondary fattening in the second half of the year is expected to continue to increase.
Source: China Merchants Securities
When the second fattening condition is stable, it has little effect on the pig cycle. The intensity of subsequent secondary fattening is stable, and the proportion of secondary fattening in actual sales fluctuates around 5%. Considering that the rolling of secondary fattening in the current month reduces the monthly supply, but the fattening pigs are fattened one quarter ahead of schedule and the second fattening increases the monthly supply. One increase and one decrease, the effect of second breeding on pig supply is more stable.
In May this year, the supply and demand pattern included the situation that the supply of the month was reduced by the rolling of the second fattening in that month, and that the supply of the fattening pigs was increased by the fattening of the fattening in March. The stronger price in May also shows that the moderate intensity of secondary fattening has less negative effect on the price of pig cycle upward process, and the price more reflects the effect of early reproductive sow degeneration.
When the intensity of secondary fattening increased obviously, it was assumed that the intensity of secondary fattening increased significantly from September to October. On the other hand, the pace of supply contraction caused by the reduction of fertile sows is disrupted, and prices are likely to rise sharply from September to October. To some extent, it weakens the pig price performance of New Year's Day and the Lunar New year, but the impact may be limited. As can be seen from the current futures prices, the most expensive futures contract is the November contract, which is stronger than the contracts in January and September next year. Although January 2025 contracts are slightly cheaper than November 2024, they are all over 18 yuan / kg.
Data source: Huarong Rongda Futures
The current round of capacity elimination has taken more than one year. As of March 2024, the cumulative maximum removal range of the Ministry of Agriculture / Yongyi Consulting is 11% and 12% respectively, and the volume of production capacity of the Ministry of Agriculture has reached the lowest level since 2021. The current valuation of the aquaculture sector is still historically low, cycle reversal is expected, or not afraid of secondary fattening disturbance, or there is still a low layout opportunity.
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Non-ferrous plates, gold stocks today more pullback. Gold stock ETF (517400) fell 4.24%, non-ferrous 60ETF (159881) fell 3.24%, and gold fund ETF (518800) fell 1.19%. At this time, the pullback may be due to the higher risk aversion yesterday and the profit-taking of some positions today.
Last week, some Fed officials said they were still hawkish. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (vote Committee) said that since the beginning of this year, the decline in the US inflation rate has slowed significantly, and the current inflation rate is higher than expected, so it is necessary to continue to maintain restrictive monetary policy. It is expected that the next Fed meeting is "more likely to keep the federal funds rate unchanged than to raise interest rates." Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Mester (voting committee), New York Fed president Williams (voting committee) and Richmond Fed president Barkin (voting committee) respectively said that inflation may take longer to reach the 2% target and is in no hurry to cut interest rates. The current market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates have fluctuated, there may be some risk of adjustment.
Fundamentally, although there may be fluctuations adjustment risks in the short term, in the medium term, the Federal Reserve is still expected to start cutting interest rates within the year, and the positive trend of general easing + rolling economic downturns on gold prices remains unchanged.
In terms of risk factors, the liquidity risk of the U.S. financial system has increased due to the continued high interest rate environment in the United States, the recent interest rate hike in Japan and the withdrawal of YCC, and the crisis may gradually emerge. On the other hand, geopolitical risk incidents have occurred frequently recently, the situation between Iran and Israel continues to be tense, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is intensifying, and market risk aversion continues to heat up.
In the 2024 multi-regional leadership elections around the world, overall market uncertainty may increase, and safe-haven demand will also bring certain medium-term support to gold prices. The pace of gold purchases by central banks around the world is still continuing, and the gold pricing center has increased. If there is a correction, you may consider bargain-hunting gold fund ETF (518800) and gold stock ETF (517400). Relatively speaking, gold stock ETF (517400) is more flexible and may be more suitable for small partners with relatively higher risk appetite.
Contributing author: Guotai Fund