News summary
National float glass daily output maintained at 17blockchaingaminginvestmentA high of.50,000 tons, demand is declining seasonally, supply pressure is increasing, and the futures market recommends focusing on the 09 contract at 1,630 - 1,650 yuan/tonblockchaingaminginvestmentShort selling opportunities. Lithium carbonate futures fell below key support levels, short-term demand resilience still exists, medium-and long-term oversupply remains unchanged, and the market may be under pressure, so it is recommended to sell short on rallies.
Newsletter text
[Float glass supply is high, market demand weakens] As the national daily float glass output remains at 17blockchaingaminginvestmentWith a historical high of..50,000 tons, despite the recent cold repairs of some production lines, the supply side remains strong. Driven by the seasonal rebound in demand in April and MayblockchaingaminginvestmentThere has been a phased decline in inventories, but after entering June, it is expected that the seasonal decline in demand and the arrival of the rainy season will have a restraining effect on downstream purchases. In addition, from January to March this year, real estate completed area and deep processing order days decreased significantly year-on-year, resulting in a significant decline in total demand. In the medium term, the relationship between supply and demand for glass tends to increase supply and decrease demand, and market pressure will increase. [Short-term market sentiment boosted by policies] In the short term, the issuance of special treasury bonds and frequent positive developments in real estate policies, coupled with the potential efforts of monetary and fiscal policies, have provided a certain degree of boost to market sentiment. However, it will still take time for policies to be transmitted to the real economy. Considering the possibility of marginal weakening of glass fundamentals after the peak season, and the difficulty in changing the pattern of high supply and weak demand in the short term, it is expected that the rebound in the futures market will be highly limited. Investors are advised to pay attention to the rebound and short selling opportunities of 09 contracts around 1,630 - 1,650 yuan per ton, and gradually stop profits as cold repair expectations are fulfilled. [Lithium carbonate futures prices fell below key support levels] The lithium carbonate futures market recently experienced a downward breakthrough and fell below key support levels. Although falling prices in the short term have increased the enthusiasm of downstream receiving goods and shown the resilience of demand, in the medium and long term, the fundamentals of the oversupply of lithium carbonate have not changed. The market may be under pressure in the second quarter, and the long-term strategy is still based on rallies selling short. [Risk Warning] Investors should pay attention to unexpected changes in glass demand and supply, which may have a significant impact on the market. At the same time, the oversupply problem in the lithium carbonate market also requires continuous attention to cope with possible market fluctuations.