Real estate stocks have suddenly become the object of capital pursuit!
On May 10, there were collective changes in A shares and real estate stocks in the Hong Kong stock market. Shimao Group, the inner housing stock in Hong Kong, rose more than 90% in intraday trading, and South China City rose more than 70% at one point. The A-share real estate sector rose nearly 4%, China Merchants Shekou, Binjiang Group and other nearly 10 shares rose by the daily limit, and Vanke An once rose nearly 5%. Some analysts pointed out that the response of real estate stock prices is usually faster than the recovery of fundamentals, so the bottom of real estate stocks has been basically clear.
On the same day, there were insurance, banks and other financial stocks that changed at the same time as real estate stocks. On the same day, the banking and insurance sectors in Hong Kong rose by 4%. Energy, electricity and other Hong Kong stocks with high dividends also strengthened collectively. In addition, a number of Hong Kong stocks dividend-related ETF rose more than 5 per cent. Among them, Hong Kong stock central enterprise dividend ETF, Hong Kong stock non-bank ETF, Hong Kong stock financial ETF, Hong Kong stock dividend index ETF, Hong Kong stock central enterprise dividend ETF all hit new highs. In this regard, brokerage China took the lead in reporting this morning: "Hong Kong, a sudden spread of great good!" "
So why are the high dividend sectors so strong?
Real estate stocks soared.
Today, real estate stocks are highly sought after. At one point in the afternoon, the Hong Kong Shimao Group rose more than 90%, reaching as high as 1.FortunecoinfreeslotsHK $16, up nearly 160% in two days. At one point, the city of South China rose by more than 70%, and Zhengrong Real Estate, China Olympic Garden, Fancy Holdings, Kaisa Industry Group and so on have followed suit. By the close, Shimao Group was up 60%, South China City was up nearly 45%, China Olympic Garden and pattern holding was up more than 20%, and Kaisa Group was up 14%.Fortunecoinfreeslots.55%.
In the A-share market, the real estate sector also rose sharply. By the close, the overall plate was up nearly 4%. Nearly 10 shares, such as China Merchants Shekou, China Jiaotong Real Estate, I Love my Family, and Binjiang Group, rose by the daily limit, Poly Development rose by more than 5%, and Vanke A rose by more than 3.56%.
Some analysts pointed out that the strength of real estate stocks is related to the news that Hangzhou, the core city of the Yangtze River Delta, and Xi'an, the core city of the northwest, have both announced the cancellation of housing purchase restrictions. The market expects that the regulation and control policies of first-tier cities will be optimized to the main urban areas, and the pattern of abolishing purchase restrictions in second-tier cities will be accelerated. The recent intensive landing of policies will help to repair market expectations, and promote the improvement of market trading activity, helping sales gradually stabilize.
On May 9, Hangzhou issued the Circular on optimizing and adjusting the Regulation and Control Policy of the Real Estate Market, and Xi'an issued the Circular on further promoting the stable and healthy Development of the Real Estate Market. The two high-energy cities further optimized and adjusted their real estate policies on the same day, including a series of measures such as the complete abolition of housing purchase restrictions. Prior to this, Chengdu also issued an article on April 28 to optimize real estate policy.
Huatai Securities pointed out that Chengdu, Hangzhou and Xi'an have all performed well in the removal rate since the fourth quarter of 2023, and the optimization of real estate policies in these cities is expected to inject confidence into the market. At present, real estate sales have not yet fully stabilized and rebounded, and the Politburo meeting continues due to the implementation of urban policies, and more industry support policies are expected to be issued by more first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities, which is expected to promote market confidence and fundamental repair. provide room for valuation and repair for the real estate sector.
At present, the market pays close attention to the fundamental trend after the introduction of the policy, and Citic Securities believes that housing prices in the core areas of the core cities are expected to stabilize by mid-2024. In addition, Citic Construction Investment said that a number of core cities have been launched recently.FortunecoinfreeslotsRelaxed policies on purchase restrictions, including the optimization of housing purchase restrictions in Beijing after 13 years, and the addition of a home purchase index outside the Fifth Ring Road.FortunecoinfreeslotsCity-wide restrictions on purchase in Chengdu and Changsha; restrictions on the purchase of new houses above 120 square meters in six districts of Fangkai City in Tianjin; single households with non-local household registration and two-child household registration in Shenzhen can purchase an additional house in some areas. It is expected that under the new policy tone, the real estate regulation and control policies of first-tier cities will be optimized to the main urban areas, and the pattern of complete abolition of purchase restrictions in second-tier cities will be accelerated.
After the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee set the tone, a new round of policies has arrived, the policies of the core first-and second-tier cities continue to be optimized, and more supportive policies are expected to be introduced in the follow-up. We believe that the current fundamentals of the industry are already at the bottom, the room for subsequent decline has been limited, and the valuation of the real estate sector is at a historically low level. The response of real estate stocks is usually faster than the recovery of fundamentals, so the bottom of real estate stocks is basically clear.
Du Haofeng and Fang Peng, analysts at Guojin Securities, also believe that after the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee has set the tone, a new round of policy has arrived, the policies of the core first-and second-tier cities have been continuously optimized, and more supportive policies are expected to be introduced in the follow-up. At present, the fundamentals of the industry are already at the bottom, the room for subsequent decline has been limited, and the valuation of the real estate sector is at a historically low level. The response of real estate stocks is usually faster than the recovery of fundamentals, so the bottom of real estate stocks is basically clear. The first priority is to focus on the layout of first-tier and core second-tier cities, focusing on improved products and housing enterprises with sustainable land acquisition capacity.
The rise of financial stocks
Financial stocks are also one of the highlights today.
In the Hong Kong stock market, by the close, Hong Kong banks and insurance sectors rose more than 4%, China Pacific Insurance rose more than 8%, China Construction Bank rose nearly 7%, Xinhua Insurance and Postal savings Bank rose more than 6%, Ping an of China rose 5.77%, Agricultural Bank of China rose more than 5%, and China Life Insurance, CITIC Bank and Bank of Communications rose nearly 5%. At the same time, high dividend sectors of Hong Kong stocks such as energy and electric power also rose sharply, of which the energy sector rose more than 4%, China Shenhua rose more than 6%, and Sinopec shares rose more than 5%.
Some analysts pointed out that the rise in high dividend assets in Hong Kong stocks, such as finance, energy and power, was mainly affected by a rumor last night that "the tax on Hong Kong stock dividends may be reduced." However, as of brokerage Chinese reporters published, the above news has not been officially confirmed.
China International Capital Corporation pointed out in a report released this morning that if the tax relief on Hong Kong stock dividends is implemented, it is expected to further boost the investment enthusiasm of mainland investors in Hong Kong stocks, especially those related to high dividends, and boost sentiment in the short term. It will also help to improve the liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market in the long run.
China International Capital Corporation pointed out that a liquidity task force was set up in Hong Kong in August last year to focus on follow-up liquidity enhancement measures. Looking forward, if the dividend tax-related adjustment is implemented, it will be another potentially important measure to enhance the liquidity of Hong Kong stocks following the reduction of stamp duty on Hong Kong stocks at the end of last year and the introduction of five measures of co-operation with Hong Kong by the Securities Regulatory Commission last month. Next, we do not rule out further measures, which may include reducing transaction costs in the short term (reducing transaction commissions); lowering the threshold for investment in the medium term and broadening the scope of investment (appropriately relaxing the entry threshold for Hong Kong shares and continuously optimizing the listing system); long-term activation of product innovation (optimizing Hong Kong's gem mechanism, setting up a professional board for professional investors, etc.).
Huatai Securities said that the dividend tax not only directly affected the AH premium of dual-listed companies, but also indirectly affected the southbound investment value of constituent stocks within the scope of the Hong Kong Stock Connect. Taking May 8, 2024 as the time parameter, within the scope of Hong Kong Stock Connect, stocks with a market capitalization of more than HK $10 billion and a static dividend rate of more than 5 per cent are taken as scope pools. under the overall approach, we select the sub-sectors in which the southward shareholding ratio of the industry is more than 14.9% and the static dividend ratio is higher than 7%. The results are as follows: energy, materials, capital goods, auto and auto parts and banks. After that, we can pay attention to the improvement of the investment value of high dividend varieties in related industries.
(article source: brokerage China)